July 02, 2004

Interesting analysis

A new document highlights the sophistication (and success) of the al Qaeda strategy in Iraq:

"We consider that the Spanish government cannot suffer more than two to three strikes before pulling out (of Iraq) under pressure from its own people," said the document obtained Wednesday by AFP from Raido France Internationale's regional office in Beirut.

"If these (Spanish) forces remain after the strikes, the victory of the socialist party would be near-guaranteed and the pullout of Spanish forces from Iraq would be on its agenda," said the document, distributed ahead of the March 11 attacks in Madrid.

Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, elected after the train bombings in Madrid which left 191 people dead in Spain's worst ever terrorist attack, withdrew Spanish troops from the troubled country in May.

The document has apparently been issued in late February, as it refers to the early days of the Islamic new year which fell on February 21.

Like the Zarqawi memo, it gives insight into the kinds of analysis and planning that al Qaeda is capable of.

Posted by richard at July 2, 2004 01:26 PM